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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still