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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."